The Greece-Turkey talks are extra doubtless than to not fail, analysts say, as the 2 sides put together for recommencing negotiations on January 25, after a a five-year hiatus.
The exploratory talks between the neighboring countries will happen in Istanbul, as respective international ministers Nikos Dendias and Mevlüt Cavusoglu are assembly immediately, Wednesday, with EU officers to tell them concerning the agenda.
The US welcomed the exploratory talks associated to maritime zone delimitation, the US State Division mentioned on Tuesday.
A State Division spokesperson mentioned that the US helps all efforts to scale back tensions within the Jap Mediterranean and the talks might contribute to that effort.
Nonetheless, the resumption of the dialogue begins with an enormous query mark — the completely different beginning factors of the 2 sides in regard to what’s to be mentioned.
Variations from the beginning
Athens will sit on the negotiating desk to debate a single challenge, which is the delimitation of maritime zones within the Aegean, as Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has made clear.
Ankara, however, needs to convey a number of points to the desk, such because the continental shelf, demilitarization of Greek islands, grey zones and airspace within the Aegean, and unique financial zones (EEZ).
In accordance with Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Company, Ankara needs to debate a number of points that contain not solely the Aegean however the wider Jap Mediterranean space.
Within the Aegean, Turkey needs to debate points regarding the continental shelf, territorial waters, airspace, demilitarization of islands and islets, air visitors facilities (FIR), and jurisdictions of operations.
As for the Jap Mediterranean and Cyprus, Ankara needs to convey up the continental shelf and EEZ, within the context of a “truthful resolution” for the safety of the rights of Turkish-Cypriots within the occupied a part of the island.
Greece has made it clear from the beginning that points equivalent to continental cabinets and territorial waters are usually not up for dialogue as a result of they’ve already been determined by the Treaty of Lausanne.
Turkish provocations undermine belief
Within the 5 years for the reason that final talks between the 2 sides, Turkey has provoked Greece and Cyprus nearly constantly, with tensions culminating in 2020 with a collection of virtually endless unlawful actions.
The Turkish analysis ship Oruc Reis — accompanied by warships — repeatedly violated Greek territorial waters looking for oil and fuel. Additionally, Turkish fighter jets violated Greek airspace over the Aegean on nearly a every day foundation.
Through the 12 months, a barrage of Turkish propaganda accused Greece of elevating tensions within the Aegean, whereas the European Union obtained fireplace as effectively for supporting its personal members, Greece and Cyprus.
Turkey’s unlawful acts got here to a screeching halt, nonetheless, in December, as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan modified course by extending a sudden hand of friendship to the EU and the US.
Erdogan adjustments course
In accordance with Director of Analysis Packages of the Worldwide Affairs Institute, Nikos Filis, Ankara’s flip to the West is nothing however a tactical transfer, as a way to not disrupt relations with the West.
Talking to MEGA TV, Filis mentioned that by placing so many illogical calls for on the desk that may pressure Greece to cease negotiating, Erdogan will be capable of blame Greece after which really feel justified to go to struggle.
“Turkey will present that the Greek facet can not negotiate issues {that a} nation negotiates when it loses in a struggle,” Filis mentioned, including that Ankara will proceed provocations after that.
“Turkey will attempt slowly — and through the use of each blackmail and diplomatic methods — to slide into full-fledged deliberations. We have now to be very cautious,” Filis mentioned.
Turkish calls for are unreasonable
Ioannis Mazis, a professor of Financial Geography and Geopolitics on the Nationwide and Kapodistrian College of Athens, shares the identical view, calling the Turkish agenda for the talks unreasonable.
“I don’t see the exploratory talks bearing any outcomes and I’m afraid that in March we could have new points and disagreements that may result in new aggravations,” Mazis mentioned.
Costas Yfantis, a professor of Worldwide Relations at Panteion College, mentioned that Greece wished the exploratory talks, however Turkey has torpedoed the problem no less than twice.
The professor mentioned that he doesn’t rule out the likelihood that provocations will begin once more and the stress Turkey makes use of as a lever of stress will continues, and that the Greek facet must endure.
